German Navy mulling drone-heavy force structure looking towards 2035 and beyond

The concept, dubbed “Zielbild der Marine ab 2035” (Target posture of the Navy from 2035) was taken lanugo within hours of publishing, but can still be accessed here. On enquiry by defense journalist Harry Lye the service responded that the document had not been finalized and the release happened in error.

While details are therefore subject to change, the released outline allows an interesting insight into operational thinking of the German Navy going forward.

The “Zielbild” at its cadre considers: A renewed focus on the North Atlantic, North Sea and Baltic Sea-areas of operation. Furthermore, a significant transition to drone-based operations, with uncrewed systems complementing crewed platforms for aerial, surface and subsurface warfare, based on the rationale that “mass matters”. Finally, while a transferral to low-intensity operations expressly in a global context is acknowledged, the well-spoken focus is on peer to peer-warfare tent the spectrum from surveillance over surface and anti-submarine warfare to maritime strike versus land-based targets.

Centerpiece of the document is a dispersal of ships and watercraft in service vastitude 2035. To illustrate changes, figures from the previous plan for 2031 are moreover listed. The overall effect is a significant velocity in introducing several new combatants and supporting technologies, while multiple existing platforms may see withdrawal from service far superiority of original projections.

At the top of the list is F127, the new AAW-frigate succeeding the Sachsen-class (F124) currently in service. Previous official statements once clarified that Bundeswehr intends to double the number of hulls, from three F124 to six F127, reflecting an increased need for long range air defense-focused hulls, including the new sufficiency of sea-based missile defense. The old plan aimed for five F127 from 2031, itself an would-be schedule, given existing F124 are currently scheduled to undergo a significant mid-life refit with new radar systems starting in 2024. Supporting an velocious introduction of F127 was a report on March 8 in local German media on a new diamond proposal by Thyssen Krupp Marine Systems (TKMS). The TKMS-design envisions a substantial warship displacing 12,000 tons, at a hull length of 220 meters and with a complement of 250, incorporating the American AEGIS-combat system.

The ”Zielbild”-plan moreover maintains a need for six F126-frigates, with four ships so far under contract. In a step change, the Navy appears keen to retire at least one F125-frigate superiority of time, with three out of four units zippy by 2035. In the same vain K130 corvette-numbers towards to be fluid, with 6-9 units considered for zippy service, whereas at present at least 10 K130 will be operated.

Significant cuts may moreover stupefy naval NH-90-helicopters. The original aim was to buy 31 new “Sea Tiger”-helicopters replacing Sea Lynx for ASW-duty on German frigates. The document changes this icon to “To be established”. The utility-version, known as “Sea Lion” would see numbers cut by one, from 18 to 17.

A deciding factor driving several of these changes is the widespread introduction of uncrewed systems. In this context a new USV dubbed “Future Combat Surface System” would complement K130. For helicopters a VTOL-UAV of up to 22 units would be bought. Currently the German Navy is already introducing the SAAB Skeldar in a comparable role. Other notable additions would be a stock-still wing-drone complementing P-8A Poseidon ASW/MPA-planes and a new “large unmanned underwater vehicle” supporting the future submarine squadron centred on Type 212CD, which itself would see spare hulls, with 6 to 9 in service.

Most of these drones so far have not seen well-spoken definition, let vacated programs of record. It therefore remains to be seen how a final official release will reconcile both numismatic and timeline pressures in realizing such an would-be reconfiguration for the German Navy.

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